G20 Weekend di Sydney

Dua tahun setelah negara-negara emerging market menyalahkan kebijakan pelonggaran kuantitatif Federal Reserve untuk berlebihan run- up dalam nilai mata uang mereka melalui memperdalam penurunan USD , para pemimpin dari beberapa negara emerging market menyalahkan Fed pembelian aset pada volatilitas dan penurunan mata uang mereka . Argumen bahwa Fed senilai $ 20 miliar lonjong pembelian aset bulanan telah dialihkan menjauh modal dari obligasi dengan yield meningkatnya obligasi US Treasury adalah salah satu jalan dari kritik . Eropa dan Amerika Utara kemungkinan akan mendukung kebijakan normalisasi Fed dan mendesak negara-negara berkembang untuk membersihkan rumah secara internal .

Lebih penting lagi , perhatian dapat kembali ke Jepang sebagai stimulus besar-besaran PM Abe mungkin untuk menarik dukungan baru akan menyusul perbaikan penting ekonomi Jepang pada tahun 2013 - meskipun kenaikan mengecewakan 0,3 % di Q4 . Setiap kata-kata dukungan G20 untuk Abe harus memperpanjang yen baru-baru ini menjual dan berpotensi memanggil 103.50s di USDJPY sampai tutup berikutnya muncul di kanan bawah 104.00 .

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FLASH OIL

Minyak Mentah ( Crude OIL )
Harga minyak diperdagangkan 2,77% lebih tinggi terhadap USD pada minggu lalu dan ditutup pada USD99.14 , karena krisis sipil di Libya terus memicu kekhawatiran pasokan dari negara Afrika Utara yang kaya minyak . Selain itu , penurunan ketiga berturut-turut dalam stok minyak mentah AS yang dilaporkan oleh American Petroleum Institute dan Energy Information Administration juga mendukung harga minyak mentah . Namun, keuntungan yang disimpan di bawah cek , sebagai gulungan parsial kembali untuk program pembelian obligasi Fed penyok prospek pertumbuhan untuk minyak mentah dari konsumen terbesar . Minyak diperdagangkan di level tertinggi 99,49 dan terendah 96,21 pada minggu sebelumnya . Minyak memiliki dukungan besar pertama di 97,07 , sedangkan support berikutnya ada di 95.00 . Hambatan pertama adalah pada 100,35 , dan berikutnya di 101.56 .

Setelah minggu kenaikan kuat , pedagang tetap berhati-hati menjelang liburan Natal , dengan peserta enggan untuk mengambil posisi , dengan perkembangan di Timur Tengah , terutama dari Libya , tetap sebagai katalis kunci dalam menentukan arah minyak mentah .


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FLASH GOLD

GOLD ( emas )

Pada minggu sebelumnya , Emas diperdagangkan 2,91% lebih rendah terhadap USD dan ditutup pada USD1201.93 , menyentuh posisi terendah multi bulan , sebagai membunuh update makroekonomi dan politik yang positif dari AS datang sebagai berkah bagi greenback . The Fed akhirnya menekan pemicu untuk mencari jalan keluar parsial untuk bullion kebijakan pembelian aset ramah dari Januari . Dolar AS juga tetap didukung , setelah Senator AS membersihkan bagian untuk anggaran yang diusulkan , penarikan ancaman krisis pemerintah lain di Amerika Serikat . Selain itu , angka PDB AS kuat juga menyebabkan aksi jual di safe haven logam kuning . Kerugian dalam haven logam safe juga datang setelah Dewan Emas Dunia memperkirakan bahwa kenaikan baru-baru ini di bea emas di salah satu konsumen terbesar logam kuning , India , telah mengakibatkan penurunan permintaan oleh sekitar 32 % di kuartal ketiga di negara Asia . Logam kuning diperdagangkan pada tinggi 1.252,14 dan terendah 1.187,13 pada minggu sebelumnya . Emas diperkirakan akan menemukan support di 1.175,33 dan berikutnya di 1.148,72 . Hambatan pertama adalah pada 1.240,34 , sedangkan berikutnya adalah pada 1.278,74 .

Volume perdagangan diperkirakan akan tetap terang karena liburan Natal , dengan para pedagang melikuidasi posisi mereka sebelum akhir tahun , mengurangi likuiditas di pasar dan meningkatkan volatilitas .


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FLASH AUDUSD

AUDUSD

AUD diperdagangkan 0,37% lebih rendah terhadap USD minggu lalu, dan ditutup pada 0,8921, setelah risalah pertemuan kebijakan terbaru RBA terus pintu terbuka untuk lain penurunan suku bunga untuk mendukung perekonomian negara kepulauan. Selain itu, komentar dari Gubernur RBA, Glenn Stevens, bahwa nilai tukar untuk Aussie di atas 90 sen AS tetap menjadi ancaman bagi perekonomian, juga bertekanan AUD. Sementara itu, buletin bank sentral juga menegaskan sikap dari seorang Aussie yang terlalu tinggi. Di depan data, indikator utama Conference Board di Australia beringsut lebih tinggi pada bulan Oktober, sedangkan indeks utama Westpac turun pada periode yang sama. Selama seminggu, pasangan ini diperdagangkan pada 0,8970 tinggi dan rendah dari 0,8821. Dukungan pertama adalah pada 0,8838, dan selanjutnya pada 0,8755. Hambatan pertama adalah pada 0,8987, dan selanjutnya pada 0,9053.

Penjualan rumah baru Australia tetap satu-satunya rilis ekonomi makro yang diperkirakan akan membawa fluktuasi cahaya dalam minggu ini meriah.

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FLASH USDCAD

USD CAD

Pekan lalu, USD diperdagangkan 0,69% lebih tinggi terhadap CAD dan ditutup pada 1,0672, sebagai greenback tetap didukung menyusul keputusan Fed untuk merevisi laju pembelian obligasi dan di tengah data pertumbuhan AS yang lebih baik dari yang diharapkan. Dalam berita ekonomi Kanada, indeks harga konsumen domestik naik pada laju yang lebih lambat di bulan November. Sementara itu, penjualan ritel di negara ini jatuh pada bulan Oktober. Secara terpisah, penjualan grosir di negara ini naik 1,4% pada bulan Oktober. Sementara itu, penjualan rumah yang ada di Kanada meningkat pada bulan November. USDCAD diperdagangkan pada tinggi 1,0738 dan terendah 1,0573 pada minggu sebelumnya. Dukungan pertama adalah di 1,0584, dengan berikutnya di 1,0496. Hambatan pertama adalah pada 1,0749, sedangkan berikutnya adalah pada 1,0826.

Selama seminggu, laporan GDP Kanada tetap satu-satunya data kunci. Para pedagang Loonie juga akan mengandalkan berita yang berasal dari tetangga selatan untuk menempatkan taruhan mereka dalam pasangan.


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FLASH USDCHF

USD CHF

USD diperdagangkan 0,56 % lebih tinggi terhadap CHF dan ditutup pada 0,8958 pada minggu lalu . Selama seminggu , sebuah laporan yang diterbitkan oleh SECO mengungkapkan bahwa pemerintah Swiss mengharapkan ekonomi untuk meningkatkan selama jangka waktu dua tahun ke depan . Selain itu, indeks ekspektasi ekonomi Swiss naik di bulan Desember . Secara terpisah , Swiss National Bank dalam buletin kuartalan menegaskan langit-langit mata uang terhadap Euro dan menunjukkan bahwa bank sentral siap untuk menegakkan nilai tukar minimum , jika perlu , dengan membeli mata uang asing dalam jumlah terbatas , dan untuk mengambil tindakan lebih lanjut yang diperlukan . Juga , Dana Moneter Internasional menunjukkan bahwa mereka mengharapkan ekonomi Swiss untuk memperluas 1,79% pada tahun 2014 . Selama periode tersebut , pasangan ini diperdagangkan pada 0,9001 tinggi dan rendah dari 0,8833 . Dukungan pertama adalah pada 0,8860 , dan selanjutnya pada 0,8763 . Resistance ada pertama di 0,9028 , dan kemudian di 0,9099 .

Pedagang akan fokus pada peluncuran buletin statistik bulanan oleh Swiss National Bank bersama dengan indikator konsumsi UBS untuk November .

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FLASH USDJPY

USD JPY

USD diperdagangkan 0,81 % lebih tinggi terhadap JPY selama seminggu terakhir , ditutup pada 104,09 , seperti The Fed AS mengambil langkah pertama untuk skala kembali program pembelian aset . Sementara itu, BoJ terus sikap moneter tidak berubah pada pertemuan kebijakan baru ini menyimpulkan . Selain itu, juga menyatakan bahwa ekonomi Jepang akan terus pulih pada kecepatan yang moderat . Namun, juga memperingatkan bahwa kenaikan pajak penjualan dapat menghambat permintaan di negara ini . Dalam berita ekonomi , survei Tankan untuk manufaktur dan non manufaktur aktivitas meningkat lebih dari ekspektasi pasar . Sementara itu, defisit perdagangan negara itu semakin meningkat pada November, sementara indeks ekonomi coincident dan memimpin peningkatan di bulan Oktober . Pasangan ini diperdagangkan pada tinggi 104,64 dan terendah 102,50 . Pasangan ini diharapkan untuk mencari dukungan pertama di 102,85 , dengan support berikutnya diharapkan pada 101,60 . Hambatan pertama adalah pada 104.99 , dan berikutnya di 105,88 .




BoJ diperkirakan akan merilis menit survei ekonomi dan kebijakan pertemuan bulanan itu . Investor juga akan menjaga tab dekat pada inflasi bangsa dan data indeks harga layanan perusahaan dari ekonomi Jepang yang sarat deflasi .
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FLASH GBPUSD

GBP USD
Pada minggu lalu , GBP diperdagangkan 0,33 % lebih tinggi terhadap USD dan ditutup pada 1.6348 , sebagai rangkaian pembaruan ekonomi makro yang positif lebih lanjut disemen pemulihan ekonomi di Inggris . Sementara itu, menit BoE mengungkapkan bahwa para pembuat kebijakan berdiri bersatu dalam menjaga suku bunga dan jumlah stimulus moneter tersentuh , mengutip bangkit kembali solid perekonomian bangsa .

Selain itu , laporan produk domestik bruto nasional kuartal ketiga menunjukkan angka spektakuler .Selain itu , sektor tenaga kerja nasional terus menunjukkan tanda-tanda perbaikan yang sehat sebagai jumlah penuntut di negara ini menurun lebih lanjut pada bulan Oktober dan tingkat pengangguran juga meningkat pada periode yang sama . Penjualan ritel di Inggris rebound pada bulan November , memberikan tanda-tanda bahwa musim perayaan sehat mungkin lebih mendukung perekonomian. Pasangan ini diperdagangkan pada 1,6484 tinggi dan rendah dari 1,6220 pada minggu sebelumnya . GBPUSD diperkirakan akan menemukan support pertama di 1,6217 , dengan berikutnya di 1,6087 . Resistance ada pertama di 1,6481 , dan kemudian di 1,6615 .

Pasangan ini diharapkan memiliki minggu perdagangan tipis , di tengah cahaya kalender ekonomi  .

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FLASH EUR USD

EUR USD

Pekan lalu , EUR diperdagangkan 0,40% lebih rendah terhadap USD dan ditutup pada 1.3671 , sebagai greenback mendapat dorongan setelah keputusan Fed untuk memangkas jumlah pembelian obligasi pada pertemuan kebijakan bulan Desember. Selain itu , peringkat kredit downgrade oleh lembaga pemeringkat S & P juga memberikan kontribusi terhadap kerugian dalam mata uang umum . Secara terpisah , Bank Sentral Eropa ( ECB ) Presiden , Mario Draghi , menggema bahwa pemulihan ekonomi zona Euro masih rapuh. Dia lebih jauh mencatat bahwa bank sentral akan terus menjaga sikap akomodatif selama itu diperlukan . Dalam berita ekonomi , PMI manufaktur di zona Euro , Jerman dan Perancis menunjukkan perbaikan yang signifikan pada bulan Desember , namun, PMI non - manufaktur dari daerah ini gagal untuk mengesankan pelaku pasar . Dalam perkembangan penting , para Menteri Keuangan mencapai kesepakatan untuk menemukan mekanisme untuk penanganan bank gagal di blok tersebut . Juga, Menteri Keuangan menyetujui angsuran bailout lain untuk Yunani senilai € 1 miliar. Selama seminggu , pasangan ini diperdagangkan pada tinggi 1.3811 dan terendah 1,3625 . Pasangan ini diharapkan untuk mencari dukungan pertama di 1.3594 , dengan support berikutnya diharapkan pada 1.3516 . Hambatan pertama adalah di 1.3780 , dan berikutnya di 1.3888 .

Ini adalah minggu ringan untuk pedagang Euro , karena data inflasi Jerman adalah satu-satunya pembaruan ekonomi makro yang dijadwalkan pada akhir minggu .

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Pembaruan Mingguan Forex Dec - 23

Pembaruan Mingguan Forex 

Selama seminggu terakhir , permintaan untuk haven greenback safe menerima dorongan , setelah Federal Reserve AS ( Fed ) akhirnya memilih untuk sebagian menghentikan kebijakan moneter longgar ultra , dengan memotong ukuran pembelian obligasi bulanan sebesar $ 10 miliar dari Januari , mengutip rilis baru-baru ini positif data ekonomi di AS .

Greenback juga bersorak berlalunya kesepakatan anggaran yang diusulkan oleh Senat Demokrat , menarik kemungkinan krisis pemerintah lain di negara ini . Selain itu , lebih baik dari yang diharapkan produk domestik bruto (PDB ) data yang dirilis pada hari Jumat , disemen sentimen bahwa pertumbuhan akhirnya diambil pegangan di AS .

Dalam berita ekonomi lainnya dari AS , produksi industri naik pada tingkat tertinggi dalam beberapa tahun terakhir pada bulan November . Defisit transaksi berjalan menyempit tak terduga pada kuartal ketiga . Sementara itu, klaim pengangguran awal naik tiba-tiba dan indeks harga konsumen menunjukkan tanda-tanda peningkatan stabil pada bulan November .

Euro bergerak ke selatan terhadap USD , setelah lembaga pemeringkat Standard & Poor ( S & P ) menurunkan peringkat kredit untuk Euro - zona ke ' AA + ' , mengutip memburuknya kredit keseluruhan negara-negara anggota . Sementara itu, Bank Sentral Eropa ( ECB ) Kepala , Mario Draghi , menegaskan kembali sikapnya untuk menjaga kebijakan moneter akomodatif sampai diperlukan . Dalam perkembangan penting , Euro kelompok Menteri Keuangan dipalu kesepakatan untuk mencapai suatu mekanisme untuk menangani bank gagal .

The UK Pound mengalami lagi minggu menang , sebagai indikator makroekonomi nasional terus memberikan bukti prospek pertumbuhan yang mengesankan di Inggris . Untuk menambah nada positif , lembaga S & P Peringkat menegaskan kembali peringkat kredit tertinggi untuk Inggris .

The Bank of Japan ( BoJ ) meninggalkan sikap moneter tidak berubah pada pertemuan kebijakan terbaru dan menegaskan kembali sikapnya bahwa bangsa akan terus pulih pada kecepatan yang moderat . Namun, Gubernur BoJ , Haruhiko Kuroda , memperingatkan bahwa setiap kenaikan pajak penjualan mungkin mengakibatkan permintaan berkurang di Jepang . Terhadap latar belakang ini , investor akan tetap menutup mata pada laporan inflasi minggu ini .

Pemerintah Swiss melalui lembaga ekonomi , Sekretariat Negara untuk Ekonomi ( SECO ) , yakin bahwa ekonomi Swiss akan meningkatkan dalam beberapa tahun mendatang . Juga, Swiss National Bank ( SNB ) menegaskan kembali perlunya langit-langit mata uang terhadap Euro , mengutip kekuatan Swissy .

The Loonie melemah terhadap USD , setelah angka inflasi di Kanada mengecewakan investor pada bulan November , meningkat harapan bahwa bank sentral akan terus menjadi enggan dalam hiking suku bunga .

Dolar Australia berada di bawah tekanan setelah menit terbaru Reserve Bank of Australia ( RBA ) pertemuan kebijakan mengungkapkan kemungkinan penurunan suku bunga lebih lanjut , jika diperlukan , di tengah " nyaman tinggi " Dolar Australia . Selain itu , Bendahara , Joe Hockey , saat memperkenalkan laporan pertengahan tahun prospek ekonomi dan fiskal memperingatkan pemotongan drastis pengeluaran pemerintah , mengutip defisit anggaran diproyeksikan untuk lagu $ 68 M selama empat tahun ke depan .


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EURJPY Awaits Japan CPI

What a difference a day makes as today's USD tumble was attributed to a modest miss in Q1 GDP revision (2.4% vs exp 2.5%), while the important PCE rose to a higher than expected 3.4%. USDX failed to reach the 85 resistance, but support looks to remain intact around 80.70. AUDUSD rebounded on higher than expected Capex spending plans but failed to reach our 0.9700 short. EUR and CHF were among the day's best performers. Tonight's April CPI figures (00:30 London) from Japan are expected to show improved data all around, which may justify the weak-yen policy and support yen crosses. With EUR outperforming most major FX lately, EURJPY will be particulat to watch as Japan's inflation data is released amid 13-month highs in JGB yields.  CAD awaits tomorrow's March GDP figures, which will help determined the fate of our latest USDCAD longs.

by Ashraf Laidi

May 30, 2013 20:38

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USD/JPY Outlook May 20-24

USD/JPY continued its surge higher and hit fresh highs. Without a pullback, can the pair continue higher? The rate decision and BOJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s speech are the main market-movers this week. Here’s an outlook for the Japanese events and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.

Last week The Japanese economy enjoyed firm growth in the first quarter of 2013, rising 0.9% in January-March, the quickest growth in a year. Shinzo Abe’s radical monetary policy is finally bearing fruit. Deflation is improving and the yen is weakening. Furthermore, Japanese core machinery orders edged up 14.2% in March beating forecasts for a 3.1% growth, the fastest growth in 8 years. In addition, also the BOJ contributed with an immediate plan to “calm the bond markets” and injected more money. In the US, economic indicators are not so good, but the dollar certainly has a reason to rise. Let’s Start:

Updates: Japanese economy minister Akira Amari said that “excessive JPY gains have been corrected a lot” and that “ it’s the government’s responsibility to “minimize” that effect”. USD/JPY dropped as low as 102 before rebounding, and trades around 102.40, far off from the highs of 103.30 seen on Friday.  USD/JPY extended its fall on the not-enough hawkish statements from Evans, an FOMC member, and is at 102.25.

USD/JPY daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

1. All Industries Activity: Tuesday, 5:30. Japan’s all industry activity improved in February, rising by 0.6% after a 1.6% fall in January. The expansion occurred mainly due to a recovery in tertiary activity. The increase was contrary to market forecast of a 0.6% decline. On a yearly basis, all industry activity dropped 2.5% in February compared to a 0.7% fall in the previous month. A drop of 0.3% is expected now.
2. Trade Balance: Wednesday, 0:50. The March seasonally adjusted trade balance deficit reached Y922 from Y1.09 billion deficit in the previous month. The 1.2% drop in deficit occurred due to a rise of 1.6% in exports from February and 2.4% on the year.  The unadjusted merchandise trade deficit was a smaller than expected reaching Y362.4 billion from a year ago. An improvement to -0.61T is forecasted.
3. Monetary Policy Statement and BOJ Press Conference: Wednesday. The Bank of Japan kept monetary policy unchanged in April, in line with market forecast, following exceptional stimulus measures declared earlier that month to meet the 2% inflation rate target in two years. The BOJ switched its policy target from the overnight call rate to base money, a broad measurement of the amount of money the central bank pumps into the economy. No big change is expected this time, as the ambitious decisions from the important April 4th meeting are still being digested by the markets. 
4. BOJ Monthly Report: Thursday, 6:00. The Bank of Japan announced an unprecedented decision to inject  about $1.4 trillion into the economy in less than two years. The new Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the monetary base would nearly double to 270 trillion yen ($2.9 trillion) by the end of 2014.
5. Haruhiko Kuroda speaks: Friday, 3:55. BOE Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will speak in Tokyo. He may talk about the positive developments in Japan’s economy over the recent month and about the new monetary policy. His words can cause volatility in the markets.

*All times are GMT.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

Dollar/¥ began the week  holding above the 101.44 line (mentioned last week). It then climbed and marked a top at 102.80. After a long struggle with this line, the pair finally made a breakout, rising above 103 and closing at the high level of 103.21.

Technical lines from top to bottom

We start from higher ground once again.: 108.60 capped the pair in 2008 and worked as support during 2006. 107.16 provided support in 2007 and later worked as resistance in 2008.

105.50 is above the round number of 105 and worked as resistance during 2008. It worked as support later in the year. Below, 104.60 slowed the pair’s rise in early 2008.

103.50 is a strong line that worked as support for the pair in July and September 2008 and is a key to any strong upside move. 102.80 capped the pair in May 2013, and could work as the immediate pullback line.

101.80 worked as a cushion for the pair in May 2013, and it is minor support now.. The 101.44 line, which was the post crisis high seen in April 2009. is now critical support.

The obvious number below is the very round number of 100 and would be closely watched on any drop. 98.90 capped the pair in June 2009 and serves as minor resistance.

A stronger line is the 97.80 line, which was a peak back in 2009 and was reached in April 2013. The pair stumbled below this line, which is getting weaker. The round 97 line worked as important support in May 2013.

The March 2013 peak of 96.71 is the next line, which now switches to support. 95.88 provided a temporary stop on the way up and was also the swing low on a fall during April. The round number of 95 is also watched by many and will remain critical support on a reversal.

I temporarily turn from bullish to neutral on USD/JPY

The long term direction of the pair remains up: the extreme monetary and fiscal policies coming from Japan are likely to push the yen lower across the board. In the US, the fiscal tightening and the hints about unwinding QE as soon as this summer can boost the dollar across the board.

However, forex trading is usually not a one way street. After the big moves in the past two weeks, we could see some consolidation, at least a temporary one. It is impossible to call a top or a bottom, but perhaps we will get a pause.

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AUD/USD Continues Dramatic Plunge

May 16, 2013 – AUD/USD (daily chart) has continued its week-long plunge that initiated on a clean breakdown below the major 1.0150 support level late last week. That move broke the longstanding trading range that had been in place for the previous ten months. Since that breakdown, price has proceeded to breach parity (1.0000) and then hit key support further down around the 0.9850 level yesterday. Currently, price has broken below that level as well, establishing a new 11-month low in the process. The downtrend is currently showing few signs of relenting. With key upside resistance now residing around parity, the next major downside price objectives reside around 0.9650 and then 0.9400, both of which are important prior support/resistance levels.

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EUR/USD May 8 – Little Movement as Markets Eye German Data

So far this week, we haven’t seen any major releases from the Eurozone or the US, and predictably, EUR/USD has responded with little movement. The pair continues to test the 1.31 line in Wednesday’s European session. With what looks to be another quiet day, today’s releases could have added significance. The lone Eurozone release is German Industrial Production. Later on, the US will release Crude Oil Inventories and auction off 10-year bonds.

Here is a quick update on the technical situation, indicators, and market sentiment that moves euro/dollar.

EUR/USD Technical

• Asian session: Euro/dollar crossed above the 1.31 line late in the session and consolidated at 1.3011. The pair is testing 1.31 in the European session.
• Current range: 1.31 to 1.3160.

Further levels in both directions: 

• Below: 1.31, 1.3030, 1.3000, 1.2960, 1.2880, 1.2805, 1.2750 and 1.27.
• Above: 1.3160, 1.32, 1.3255, 1.3290, 1.3350 and 1.34.
• 1.3160, a critical line, is providing resistance.
• On the downside, the pair is testing 1.3100. 1.3030 is stronger.

Euro continues to trade close to 1.31 – click on the graph to enlarge.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

• 10:00 German Industrial Production. Exp. -0.1%.
• 12:30 FOMC Member Jeremy Stein Speaks.
• 14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Exp. 2.1M.
• 17:00 US 10-year Bond Auction.

For more events and lines, see the Euro to dollar forecast

EUR/USD Sentiment

• Draghi open to further cuts: When the ECB cut rates last week to 0.50%, the euro initially move higher, but then dropped after Draghi stated that the ECB would consider negative deposit rates. The reason? Such a move could lead to a flow of funds outside the Eurozone in search of better rates. On Monday, ECB head Mario Draghi stated that ECB was open to lowering rates further, as well as cutting its deposit rates below zero. This time, talk of negative rates did not spook the markets, and the euro remained steady.
• Letta calls for growth, not austerity: New Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta is on a European tour, and has called for an end to strict austerity. Letta wants to see the Eurozone leaders concentrate on renewing growth, rather than simply implementing more austerity measures. He received an enthusiastic welcome in Paris from French President Francois Hollande, whose popularity has plummeted due to his government’s austerity measures. Letta’s remarks were not received as warmly when he visited Berlin, as Germany is tired of bailing out other zone members and is a strong proponent of fiscal consolidation. We can expect some lively exchanges at future Eurozone summits regarding how to breathe life into the Eurozone’s ailing economy.
• Greece gets good grade from IMF: The IMF released a report this week which commended Greece for its efforts to reduce crippling  deficits, noting ”exceptional progress” in the past four years. The IMF also said that Greece had increased competitiveness and kept the financial sector stable. At the same time, the country has failed to tackle tax evasion or cut the bloated public sector, and these factors had contributed to a deep recession. We are no longer hearing whispers of a Greek exit, but the country may still need the helping hands of the IMF and the ECB until the economy shows further improvement.
•  Is Spain on the road to recovery? Spanish releases started the week started in fine fashion, as Unemployment Change dropped by 46.1 thousand. This surprised the markets, which had expected a rise of 17.1 thousand. Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has stated that he expects the unemployment rate, currently at a record 27%, to start dropping in 2014 as the economy improves.  Rajoy has implemented tough austerity measures, and further solid numbers out of Spain would be a strong indication that the austerity program is bearing fruit.

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EUR USD continues to move higher,

EUR USD continues to move higher, and has climbed to the high-1.34 range. The euro has gained over one cent so far this week. In the US, there was good news from the Federal Budget Balance, which posted a rare surplus in January. Eurozone Industrial Production rose sharply, easily beating the market forecast. Today’s highlights are US Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales.

EUR/USD Technical
Asian session: Euro/dollar was quiet, touching a low of 1.3438, before consolidating at 1.3449. The pair has moved higher in the European session.
Current range: 1.3360 to 1.34.

Further levels in both directions:
Below: 1.3480, 1.34, 1.3360, 1.3290, 1.3255 , 1.3170, 1.3130, 1.3110, 1.3030, 1.30 and 1.2960.
Above: 1.3588, 1.3690, 1.3740, 1.3860, 1.3915 and 1.40.
The pair is showing strength, as it tests resistance at 1.3480. 1.3588 is stronger.
1.34 is now providing support. This line has strengthened as the pair trades at higher levels.

Euro/dollar gaining ground ahead of G-20 meeting – click on the graph to enlarge.

EUR/USD Fundamentals
2:00 US President Obama delivers State of the Union Address.
7:00 German WPI. Exp. 0.4%. Actual 0.3%.
10:00 Eurozone Industrial Production. Exp. 0.3%. Actual 0.7%.
13:30 US Core Retail Sales. Exp. 0.1%.
13:30 US Retail Sales. Exp. 0.1%.
13:30 US Import Prices. Exp. 0.8%.
15:00 US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew Speaks.
15:00 US Business Inventories. Exp. 0.3%.
15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Exp. 2.4M.
16:10 US FOMC Member James Bullard Speaks.
18:00 US 10-year Bond Auction.

For more events and lines, see the Euro to dollar forecast

EUR/USD Sentiment
Euro Climbs Higher: With little fanfare, EUR/USD has been on the move throughout the course of the week. The euro has now gained about a cent against the US dollar since Monday, and has the 1.35 level in its sights. The euro has only recovered partially from last week’s sharp losses, but EUR/USD continues to be active. With the US releasing Retail Sales on Wednesday and Unemployment Claims on Thursday, we could see further movement if the readings are not in line with market expectations.
Draghi upbeat on Spain: ECB head Mario Draghi paid a visit to Spain on Tuesday, and addressed the Spanish Parliament in Madrid. Draghi had warm words for his hosts, declaring that “Spain is on the right track”. He was upbeat about the Spanish banking sector, stating that the country’s banks have recovered and are now able to provide credit. Draghi dismissed the idea of establishing an exchange rate policy to keep the euro from rising too rapidly, saying that it was “inappropriate” for the ECB to aim for a particular target. He did, however, reiterate that the ECB is closely monitoring the recent fluctuations in the currency markets.
G20 urged to avoid currency wars: The G20 meets in Moscow later this week, and an important topic on the agenda will be the issue of exchange rates. There has been a lot of volatility in currency rates lately, most notably, the sinking yen and the high-flying euro. There is mounting concern about currency wars, as countries are increasingly relying on monetary policy to kick-start their flagging economies. The Institute of International Finance, which is comprised of leading banks and financial institutions, has urged the G-20 to take steps to avoid the “possible discord on exchange rates”. However, given the need to reach a consensus, analysts expect any statement on currencies from the G-20 to be mild in nature.
EU Agrees to Budget Cuts: After marathon negotiations in Brussels, EU leaders have hammered out a deal to cut the EU budget, for the first time in the bloc’s history. The seven-year budget is being trimmed from the current 994 billion euros to 960 billion. The cuts are modest in scale, but nonetheless an important step in reigning in spending. The deal is a hard-fought compromise, as it reduces the budget while providing more funds for agricultural aid. Although all EU leaders have signed off on the agreement, it must be approved by the European Parliament, which is by no means certain. European Parliament head Martin Schulz has already stated that the budget will not pass in its current format, so we could see further developments in this matter.
Hollande urges action over high euro: In a recent speech before the European Parliament, French President Hollande called on the Eurozone to set a “medium term” target for the exchange rate of the euro. Hollande’s remarks were a response to the high value of the currency, which is hurting French exports and the manufacturing industry. However, German officials were quick to state their opposition to such a move. German Economy Minister Phillipp Roesler summed up the view in Berlin, declaring that “the objective must be to improve competitiveness and not to weaken the currency”. German Bundesbank head Jens Weidmann also weighed in on the issue, declaring that the euro is not overvalued and that devaluating the currency would lead to more inflation. While the German economy is showing recovery signs, the French economy continues to stumble, and Hollande is grabbing for any crutches he can lay his hands on, including a more competitive euro. The question of currency intervention will not disappear anytime soon, with heavyweights France and Germany at loggerheads over the issue.

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EUR USD BREAKOUT !

EUR/USD is steady, as the pair was trading in the mid-1.35 range. In the US, the GDP release looked awful, posting its first decline since 2009. The Federal Reserve wrapped up its policy meeting, and said that QE3 would continue. Thursday is another busy day, with a host of economic releases. In Germany, Retail Sales declined, but the Unemployment Change was very sharp. Today’s key release is US Unemployment Claims.

EUR/USD Technical

• Asian session: Euro/dollar was quiet, reaching a high of 1.3585. The pair consolidated at 1.3555. The pair is unchanged in the European session.
• Current range: 1.3480 to 1.36.

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1.3480, 1.34, 1.3360, 1.3290, 1.3255, 1.3170, 1.3130, 1.3110, 1,3030, and 1.30.
• Above: 1.36, 1.3690, 1.3750 and 1.3838.
• 1.3480 has strengthened in support.
• On the upside, 1.36 is providing resistance.

Euro/dollar steady after weak US data – click on the graph to enlarge.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

• 7:00 German Retail Sales. Exp. 0.1%. Actual -1.7%.
• All Day: German Preliminary CPI. Exp. -0.5%
• 7:45 French Consumer Spending. Exp. 0.3%. Actual 0.0%.
• 8:55 German Unemployment Change. Exp. 9K. Actual -16K.
• 12:30 US Challenger Job Cuts.
• 13:30 US Unemployment Claims. Exp. 362K.
• 13:30 US Core PCE Price Index. Exp. 0.1%.
• 13:30 US Employment Cost Index. Exp. 0.6%.
• 13:30 US Personal Spending. Exp. 0.4%.
• 13:30 US Personal Income. Exp. 0.7%.
• 14:45 US Chicago PMI. Exp. 51.1 points.
• 15:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Exp. -202B.

EUR/USD Sentiment

• No surprises from Fed: All eyes were on the Federal Reserve this week, as the powerful US central bank met for a two-day policy meeting. There were no surprise developments, as the Fed stated it would continue its open-ended QE3 program until the outlook for the labor market “improves substantially”. This put to rest any doubts that the current round of QE, under which the Fed is purchasing $85 billion a month in securities, might be terminated anytime soon. The Fed maintained its ultra-low benchmark interest rate, saying there would be no change until unemployment drops below 6.5%. With US unemployment close to 8%, we will likely be hearing this refrain for the foreseeable future.
• Euro sparkles: The euro continues to fly high, and has climbed above the 1.35 line, its highest level since December 2011. EUR/USD has now jumped almost 500 points since early January. The continental currency has been bolstered by improving German data, as well as optimistic forecasts about the Eurozone economy from ECB President Mario Draghi and others. These officials acknowledge that the Eurozone is going through a tough time, but are confident that the economy will bounce back later in 2013. Although a range of indicators, notably employment and PMI numbers, point to a deepening recession and continuing fallout from the debt crisis, the euro is enjoying the ride, at least for now.
• German Data Mixed: The German locomotive will have to get back on track if the Eurozone is to get back on its feet in 2013. So how is the German economy doing? The answer seems to be lukewarm, based on recent data. Business Sentiment has improved, and unemployment numbers were excellent. At the same time, inflation indicators have been in negative territory, pointing to subdued economic activity. The manufacturing sector is struggling, and Retail Sales fell by 1.7%, well below the estimate. The markets are well aware that as goes Germany, so goes Europe, and will be hoping for better news from the bloc’s largest economy.
• Markets fret over weak US housing numbers Although the US has posted been able to point to some strong releases recently, recent housing numbers have been in the tank. New Home Sales was a disappointment, falling well below the estimate. Pending Home Sales fared no better, plunging by 4.3%. This was the key indicator’s worst showing since last May. These dismal readings points to weakness in the US housing industry, a critical component for economic growth. The bumpy US recovery will continue to limp along if these numbers don’t improve soon.
• US  recovery continues to hit bumps: The extent of the US recovery is anyone’s guess, as US numbers continue to keep the markets guessing. Employment and retail sales numbers have been very positive, but this has been offset by weak housing and consumer confidence data. This week’s GDP reading was abysmal, as the US economy declined by 0.1%. Although a very modest loss, there is bound to be negative market reaction, as this was the first decline since 2009, and the markets had anticipated a 1.1% gain. The US will be releasing key employment numbers on Thursday and Friday, and the markets will be hoping that the US employment picture continues to brighten.

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EURUSD POTENCIAL 1.3600

British net lending to individuals and mortgage approvals rose; Swiss data mixed; solid Italian auction. Market awaits ADP, GDP and FOMC. A new set of Premium Insights has been issued ahead of Wednesday's FOMC decision. 2 new trades in EURUSD, 2 new in USDJPY, 2 dual trades in GBPUSD, 2 new in AUDUSD, 2 new in EURGBP, 2 new in EURJPY and 2 new in CADJPY. Gold, silver and US crude oil trades will be updated shortly.

USD is mixed in the ongoing session. EURUSD strengthened to a 1.3562 session high, USDJPY rose to 91.39 but commodity dollars weakened and still trade near session lows.

British net lending to individuals increased in December and reached GBP 1.7 bln from prior GBP 0.1 bln and mortgage approvals rose to 56K from 54K which is the highest level since 09/2012. GBPUSD rose alongside the euro and trades around 1.5775.

The CHF strengthened despite a set of mixed data out of Switzerland. The UBS consumption indicator rose in December to 1.34 from prior 1.23 but the KOF economic barometer fell sharply in January to 1.05 from previous 1.29. USDCHF fell to 0.9155.

Italy sold 5 and 10 year BTPs totaling EUR 6.5 bln vs. 4.5-6.5 bln target. Both average yields declined and cover was mixed. Germany allotted EUR 1.637 bln of 30 year Bund vs. 2 bln target. The average yield rose to 2.45% from 2.34% and cover fell to 1.8 from 2.7. 18.2% were retained.

The US session begins at 8:15 am ET with the ADP report that is expected to decline to 164K in January from December's 215K followed by Q4 GDP at 8:30 am that is forecasted to slow to 1.2% from prior 3.1% y/y. Markets will then wait for the FOMC decision and statement at 2:15 pm. The FOMC is likely to reiterate its stance on QE so today's meeting could be a non-event.

NZD traders await the RBNZ rate decision and statement at 3:00 pm. Rates are widely anticipated to remain steady at 2.5%.

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GBPUSD OUTLOOK

GBP/USD was down slightly this week, as the pair closed just below the 1.58 line, at 1.5795. The pound has now shed 450 points against the US dollar since the beginning of the year. There are only four events scheduled in the upcoming week, with the highlight being Manufacturing PMI. Here is an outlook of the events and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

Both the UK and the US produced mixed numbers this week, resulting in modest losses for the pair. Both countries had strong employment numbers, but British GDP recorded a decline, while US housing numbers were well below expectations.

GBP/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:  

1. Net Lending To Individuals: Wednesday, 9:30. Increased consumer debt indicates that financial institutions are comfortable lending to consumers, and that consumers are borrowing more. The indicator has looked weak of late, posting two consecutive declines. The markets are expecting an improvement in the upcoming reading, with a forecast of a gain of 0.9 billion pounds.
2. GfK Consumer Confidence: Thursday, 00:01. Consumer Confidence continues to be in the deep-freeze, with little optimism about the UK economy. The previous releases worsened by -29 points, and little change is expected in the January release.
3.  Nationwide HPI: Thursday, 7:00. This housing inflation index posted very weak readings for most of 2012, pointing to very subdued activity in the UK housing market. The markets are expecting an improvement in the January release, with an estimate of a 0.3% gain.
4. Manufacturing PMI: Friday, 9:30.The trading week wrap up with the highlight of the week. Manufacturing PMI is a key release, and an unexpected reading could impact on the movement of GBP/USD. The index surprised the markets in December by crossing above the 50 point level, for the first time since May. The estimate for January stands at 51.o points, which would indicate very slight expansion in the manufacturing industry. 

*All times are GMT

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD opened the week at 1.5855. The pair quickly reached a high of 1.5892, but then dropped all the way to 1.5746, briefly breaching support at 1.5750 (discussed last week). GBP recovered partially, and closed the week at 1.5795. 

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We begin with resistance at 1.6343, which was breached immediately after the fiscal cliff agreement on New Year’s Day, but has remained intact since that time. The pound has been on a steep slide since that time. Next, there is resistance at 1.6247. This is followed by 1.6122. The pair easily broke through resistance at 1.6060 and 1.5992 earlier this month, as the pound was no match for the greenback.

Next, 1.5930 could not hold on, as the pair pushed below the 1.59 line. Below, 1.5850 started off the week as a weak line, but was breached and has now reverted to a resistance role. The pound showed some improvement at the end of the week, so this line could see further activity if this upward trend can be sustained.

GBP/USD is receiving weak support at 1.5750. This line was breached on the pair’s downward push, but remained intact at week’s end. We encounter stronger support at 1.5648. Next is the line of 1.5516 has held steady since August of last year. This is followed by support at 1.5406, which has not been tested since July 2012. Below, there is support at 1.5361, which has held firm since June 2012. The pound started a rally at that time, which lasted until September. The final support level for now is at 1.5282.

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EUR & GBP OUTLOOK

EURUSD finally broke to the upside: a move which was expected after a few days of sideways price action in a shape of a triangle pattern. The pair already passed the 1.3400 resistance level which now opens the door for 1.3500 or even 1.3550 level for the next few days. The trend is bullish as long as market trades above 1.3260. Meanwhile, any pull-back to 1.3350 should prove corrective.

GBPUSD

The pound fell to a new low against the USD and slowed down just 5 pips from 1.5750 projected level.  Notice that pair now has five waves down from 1.6180: this is the first evidence of a coming bounce, especially if we respect the bullish divergence on the RSI. The larger pull-back however could prove corrective and may stop at 1.5900 swing level that will may react as a resistance.

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EUR USD STRUGGLE

EUR/USD (daily chart) has lingered above support at 1.3300 for the time being, but has struggled to reach the significant 1.3500 level. Price is still entrenched within a strong uptrend extending back to the July 2012 1.2041 low, and has been rather consistent in establishing higher highs during that time. After launching off the key 1.3000 area in the beginning of the year, Monday (January 14) saw price action hit a high right around the 1.3400 area, establishing a new 10-month high in the process. But a pullback slightly below 1.3300 support occurred within the next couple of days. Friday morning saw price re-approach Monday’s high, but has subsequently stalled just below it. With the high established at 1.3400, a breakout and close above it would confirm a continuation of the entrenched bullish trend, in which case price could move towards key potential resistance at 1.3500, with further potential resistance around the 1.3700 price region.

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