WEEKLY OUTLOOK LAST DEC 2013

The US dollar eventually remained almost unchanged in thin, yet volatile holiday trading. As the page turns to 2013, the calendar gets busy. Will the fiscal cliff be resolved before the 2013? US ISM Manufacturing PMI, US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change are important stepping stones to the US Non-Farm Payrolls which are all major market movers starting this year. Here is an outlook on the main event this week.

Last week US unemployment claims edged down 12,000 reaching 350,000 claims but consumer confidence declined more than expected in December reaching 65.1 from 71.5 in November, probably related to the uncertainty surrounding the oncoming fiscal cliff. Will the US policy makers succeed to avoidthe fiscal cliff? Efforts to announce a deal before December 31st continue also into the weekend, but there are growing chances that the US will go over the cliff. This remains a major market mover. Let’s Start

• US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Wednesday, 15:00. The U.S. Manufacturing PMI index declined unexpectedly to 49.5% in November flipping to contraction after a 51.7% reading in October. Economists expected a moderate decline to 51.5. Employment, backlog of orders, exports and imports contracted while production increased. A rise to 50.2 is expected now.
• US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: Thursday, 13:15. The US private sector excluding the farming industry added 118,000 new positions in November following 157,000 in October. Therelatively low reading could be accounted for by Sandy effects. Without Hurricane Sandy, the report may have been much higher. A further rise of 134,000 is expected this time.
• US Unemployment Claims; Thursday, 13:30. Initial jobless claims fell 12,000 to 350,000 last week, much better than the 365,000 predicted by analysts. However this extremely low reading was probably due to Christmas office closure. Nevertheless, according to the most recent four-week moving average there has been some improvement in the job market. Another decline to 345,000 is forecast.
• US FOMC Meeting Minutes: Thursday, 19:00. In the last FOMC meeting held in November, the Fed announced QE4: open ended buys of treasuries worth $45, adding to the QE3 purchase of MBS worth $40. In addition, the Fed announced that rates would remain low until employment reached 6.5% and as long as inflation expectations remained below 2.5%. The dovish decision continues weighing on the greenback. We will now get to know how wide was the support given to this move, and how the Fed sees the economy.
• Canadian employment data: Friday, 13:30. Canada added an impressive 59,300 new jobs in November, with a majority of full-time positions, rebounding from the weak readings in October. This unexpected surge helped push the unemployment rate down 0.2 percentage points to 7.2%. The private sector provided the major contribution to the rise in employment while public-sector jobs hardly changed. No change is expected in the number of jobs while unemployment is forecasted to rise to 7.3%.
• US Non-Farm Employment Change: Friday, 13:30. US economy added 146,000 jobs in Novemberaccording to the recent NFP report. The rise was contrary to predictions of only 89,000 job increase due to superstorm Sandy. However it is yet to be seen whether the recent hiring in retail jobs would last after the holiday season. An addition of 145,000 positions is forecasted.
• US Unemployment Rate: Friday, 13:30. US unemployment rate dropped to its lowest level in nearly four years in November reaching 7.7% from, 7.9% in October. However the main reason behind this fall is an increase in the number of workers dropping out of the labor force which is not an encouraging sign for the US economy. Unemployment rate is expected to remain 7.7%.
• US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Friday, 15:00. Economic activity in the non-manufacturing businesses edged up in November for the 35th consecutive month, reaching 54.7 from 54.2 in October, This climb indicated growth is continuing at a slightly faster rate. 11 non-manufacturing industries reported growth in November. Revenue continues to be subdued. A small decline to 54.3 is predicted this time.

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EUR/USD is losing ground in Friday’s European session

EUR/USD is losing ground in Friday’s European session, as the markets will be closely monitoring developments in the fiscal cliff negotiations. Talks will continue on Friday as US lawmakers huddle to try and hammer out a deal before the January 1st deadline. Taking a look at yesterday’s (Dec. 27th) economic releases, the news was mixed. US Unemployment Claims looked very sharp, while New Home Sales disappointed, falling below the forecast. CB Consumer Confidence also looked shaky, dropping to a four-month low. The markets will be busy on Friday, with releases from both Europe and the US. French Consumer Spending posted a small gain, and Eurozone Retail PMI fell to 44.5 points, its lowest level since August. Today’s highlight is US Pending Home Sales, the second key housing indicator in as many days.

EUR/USD Technical
Asian session: Euro/dollar was steady, consolidating at 1.3248. The pair has fallen sharply in the European session, crossing below 1.3190.
Current range: 1.3180 to 1.3240.

Further levels in both directions:


Below: 1.3180, 1.3130, 1.3110, 1.30, 1.2960, 1.2880, 1.28, 1.2750, 1.2690, 1.2624, 1.2590, 1.25 and 1.2440.
Above: 1.3240, 1.3290, 1.3350, 1.34, 1.3480 and 1.36.
1.3180 is under pressure as the pair weakens.
1.3240 is the next line on the upside.

Euro/dollar lower on fiscal cliff worries – click on the graph to enlarge.

EUR/USD Fundamentals
7:45 French Consumer Spending. Exp. 0.0%. Actual +0.2%.
9:10 Eurozone Retail PMI. Actual 44.5 points.
Tentative: Italian 10-year Bond Auction.
14:45 US Chicago PMI. Exp. 51.2 points.
15:00 US Pending Home Sales. Exp. -0.3%. See how to trade this event with USD/JPY.

For more events and lines, see the Euro to dollar forecast

EUR/USD Sentiment
Crunch time on the Hill: After all the rhetoric, mud-slinging and finger pointing, Republicans and Democrats must again try to find common ground and show more flexibility if the fiscal cliff is to be averted. If the sides can’t get their act together before January 1st, some 650 billion dollars in tax hikes and spending cuts will automatically kick in. This double-jab could rock the fragile US economy and stifle the nascent economic recovery. Talks on Thursday went nowhere, with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid warning that the US was headed over the cliff unless the Republicans gave up some ground on tax hikes. Optimism at reaching a deal is fading fast, but negotiations will continue on Friday and the weekend.
Key US data disappoints: After posting some strong data last week, this week’s data was disappointing. New Home Sales came in at 377 thousand, falling below the forecast of 382K. CB Consumer Confidence, a key consumer indicator, dropped sharply to 65.1 points, its lowest level since August. The estimate stood at 70.3 points. Unemployment Claims did look sharp, falling to 350K, easily beating the estimate of 365K. Pending Home Sales will be released later on Friday, and if this key housing indicator also falls below the forecast, it could be sign of weakness in the US housing sector.
Italy passes budget, Monti Resigns: Italy is once again facing national elections as Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti announced his resignation. Italians will go to the polls early next year, and with the third largest economy in the Eurozone, the political instability could hurt the high-flying euro. Monti has headed the government for just 13 months, but is widely credited for helping to keep the Italian economy above water during the difficult debt crisis. Monti waited for the 2013 government budget to pass before handing in his resignation. Political and financial leaders in Europe would like him to run in the upcoming elections, but in Italy the two main parties and a majority of Italians, unhappy with his austerity measures, have called upon Monti not to run. The markets will no doubt keep a close eye on developments in Rome, as the country continues to struggle with a weak economy and huge public debt.
Eurozone economies struggling: As we approach the end of 2012, the health of the economies of the major players in the Eurozone does not look promising. Unemployment is rampant in Greece and Spain, and Italy and France are also experiencing high unemployment. With these major economies facing small or even negative growth, there may not be a lot to cheer about in the early part of 2013. Germany, the economic locomotive of Europe, is in much better shape, but is suffering from slower growth and higher unemployment. On the brighter side, there has been significant progress in the Greek debt crisis, as aid is again flowing to Athens. As well, a framework has been agreed upon concerning a greater supervisory role for the ECB, with the goal of minimizing the impact of future banking crises in the Eurozone. As for the euro, it continues to trade at high levels against the dollar, despite all the economic troubles on the continent.

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XEMarkets wishes you happy holidays! Our Winter Holidays Hours DATE TRADING HOURS CUSTOMER SERVICE HOURS 31 DEC. 2012 Close at 14:00 GMT Close at 14:00 GMT 1 JAN. 2013 Closed Closed 2 JAN. 2013 Open at 06:00 GMT Open at 06:00 GMT

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Dollar yen has seen a continuation of the strong upside trend

Dollar yen has seen a continuation of the strong upside trend, today breaking above the recent consolidation phase highs, after a choppy period of trading around the 84.17 15/3/12 swing extremity.






This culminated in an inside day breakout today during thin holiday period trading conditions.

A minor support zone had formed around 83.84 after price could not break through this area on two recent downside attempts.

Price is now close to the 85.00 psychological round number area, with the 85.51, April 2011 swing high just above. A move above this area would see the dollar/yen trading at a levee; not seen since around September 2010.

Any corrective move lower brings the following potential support areas into focus as per the attached chart: recent 84.17 area resistance highs, 82.83 area previous box resistance range highs.

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HAPPY HOLIDAY

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Weekly Outlook December 24-28

The US dollar retreated for a second week, even though it was cushioned new fears about the fiscal cliff. The upcoming week is usually one of the most relaxed weeks in the year, as many celebrate Christmas. However, there are still some events to move the illiquid markets, as well as headlines from Washington. Here is an outlook for the major events this week.

Last week US GDP growth rate for the third quartersurprised to the upside with a revised 3.1% from 2.7%, beating forecasts for a 2.8% rise. Jobless claims increased to 361K still on positive ground. However these encouraging figures could soon lose their glow unless an agreement is reached at the last moment before the fiscal cliff deadline expires.
US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 13:30. The number of Americans filing initial claims for unemployment benefits edged up by 17,000 to 361,000 last week following five weeks of declines, indicating the labor market relies on faster economic growth. Economists expected 358,000 claims last week. Now that the number of layoffs has declined, hiring is expected to improve next year. Another rise to 365,000 is expected now.
US CB Consumer Confidence: Thursday, 15:00. U.S. consumer confidence soared in November to the highest level since February 2008, reaching 73.7 from an upwardly revised 73.1 in the previous month. The rise occurred amid an uptick in expectations. Economists anticipated a 73.0 reading. A decline to 70.3 is forecasted this time.
US New Home Sales: Thursday, 15:00. New single-family home sales declined moderately in October to 368,000 from downwardly revised 369,000 in the previous month casting shadow over US housing recovery. However analysts believe the housing market contributed to US economic growth this year. An increase to 382,000 is predicted now. Existing home sales rose very nicely.
US Pending Home Sales: Friday, 15:00. The number of existing homes under contract, edged up in October to nearly six years high of 104.8, rising 5.2% compared to the previous month. Improved labor market conditions and record-low mortgage rates boosted home buying in the US. A small decline of 0.3% is expected this time.

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Fiscal Blame Game Weighs

The Bank of Japan, to no one’s surprise, expanded their asset purchase program by JPY 10 trillion and left their overnight call rate unchanged at 0-0.10%. The BOJ kept the credit lending program unchanged at JPY 25 trillion and maintained the inflation goal at 1%.

This was somewhat in defiance of newly elected Prime Minister Shinzo call for doubling the inflation target to 2%. After the announcement, the USD/JPY moved lower falling below the 84.00 level and testing the 83.85 support level. The USD/JPY is currently trading in the 83.95 range.

After threatening yesterday to make a run at the 1.3300 level, the EUR reversed and traded lower overnight making a run at the 1.3200 area overnight. The sell off began during the Wednesday North America trading afternoon as traders eased away from risk trades in response to the lack of progress being made by the US in fiscal cliff negotiations. After the White House announced yesterday afternoon that President Obama would veto Speaker Boehner’s plan B, the stock market moved lower and the USD moved higher. Technically, the EUR/USD is supported at 1.3185. After reaching overnight lows, the EUR has retraced early this morning to the 1.3230 area.

Adding to the oernight pressure on the EUR were comments made by Greek Finance minister Yannis Stoumaras that Greece could still be forced out of the Eurozone if it is unable to implement the tough fiscal reforms it has promised. He added that he hopes for progress in 2013. These comments have taken away from the positive signals given off by S&P the other day when they raised Greek ratings and also from the improving Greek bond market. Ten year yields on Greek bonds were at 11.7% yesterday, after reaching a high of 30% at the end of May. Sometimes you just have to wonder about these politicians who feel the need to comment, knowing their comments will affect the moves in the currency markets. EUR resistance is now set at 1.3260, with support at the aforementioned 1.3185 level.

Another day, and another step closer to the fiscal cliff. Apparently negotiations have deteriorated over the 24 hours. As stated earlier, the President said he would veto Plan B, Republicans are hurling insults towards the White House say their plans are growing more irrational by the day, and Speaker Boehner now is pointing blame directly on President Obama, saying if he doesn’t accept the GOP proposal it will be his responsibility for the “largest tax increase in American history”. Expect to see many more Congressman facing the cameras today on CNBC and Bloomberg TV voicing their comments and pointing fingers at each other.

In other currency news, the USD/CAD moved higher overnight, testing resistance at the .9890 area. A break of the .9895 resistance, could see a test of the .9935 level. Support is at .9865, with a break there retesting the .9825 area.

Look for continued range trading as all we can do is wait for the resolution of the fiscal cliff negotiations.

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US News Set To Impact Markets

US News Once Again Set to Impact Markets Today

The US dollar took losses against most of its main currency rivals throughout European trading yesterday, amid speculations that the Fed would announce an expansion of its bond buying program to boost the US economic recovery. As a result, commodities, including gold and crude oil, saw upward movement over the course of the day. Today, US news is once again forecasted to generate market volatility. In addition to any developments in the ongoing “fiscal cliff” negotiations, traders will also want to pay attention to the Core Retail Sales, Retail Sales, PPI and Unemployment Claims figures, all set to be released at 13:30 GMT.

Economic News

USD – Dollar Takes Losses against Riskier Currency Rivals

Speculations that the Fed would announce a new round of quantitative easing yesterday caused the US dollar to fall against most of its higher-yielding currency rivals. The AUD/USD rose as high as 1.0555 during European trading, its highest level in almost three-months. Against the CAD, the greenback fell 0.9852, its lowest level since mid-October. Still, the news was not all bad for the dollar. The USD/JPY hit an eight-month high at 82.90 due to speculations that the Bank of Japan is likely to initiate a new round of monetary easing in the very near future.

Today, dollar traders will want to pay attention to a batch of US news set to be released during mid-day trading. With both the Core Retail Sales and PPI figures forecasted to come in below last month’s results, the USD could see additional bearish movement during afternoon trading. That being said, a better than expected Unemployment Claims or Retail Sales figure could help the greenback recoup some of its recent losses.

EUR – Risk Taking Helps Euro Extend Gains

The euro was able to advance against several of its main currency rivals throughout the day, as the combination of positive German data from earlier in the week and signs of progress in US “fiscal cliff” negotiations led to investor risk taking. The EUR/USD gained more than 50 pips during the European session, eventually reaching as high as 1.3052 before dropping back to the 1.3030 level. Against the Japanese yen, the common-currency advanced more than 60 pips to trade as high as 108.20.

Today, euro traders will want to pay attention to any announcements out of the EU Economic Summit, scheduled to take place throughout the day and tomorrow. While positive German news helped the euro in recent days, uncertainties regarding the economic and political situations in Italy and Spain still threaten to turn the currency bearish. If today’s summit signals any kind of slowdown in the EU economic recovery, the euro could see downward movement going into the end of the week.

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MARKET FED MEEITNGS EUR / USD

EUR/USD is steady as the markets eagerly await Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy-setting meeting. There are growing expectations that the Fed will continue to implement monetary easing, which would be bearish for the US dollar. In Italy, Prime Minister Mario Monti, who announced his resignation late last week, sought to reassure nervous markets that he would remain in office to pass the 2013 budget. In economic news, German ZEW Economic Sentiment looked very sharp, moving into positive territory for the first time since May. There are only three releases in the US on Tuesday, the highlight being Trade Balance.

EUR/USD Technical
Asian session: Euro/dollar was very steady, as the pair consolidated at 1.2943. In the European session, the pair has edged higher.
Current range: 1.2960 to 1.30.

Further levels in both directions:


Below: 1.2960, 1.2880, 1.28, 1.2750, 1.2690, 1.2624, 1.2590, 1.25, 1.2440, 1.2390 and 1.2250.
Above: 1.30, 1.3030, 1.3080, 1.3130, 1.3170, 1.3290 and 1.34.
1.2960 is providing weak support. 1.2880 is stronger.
1.30 is the next line on upside.

Euro/dollar edges higher as markets wait for Fed policy meeting – click on the graph to enlarge.

EUR/USD Fundamentals
6:30 French Final Non-Farm Payrolls. Exp. -0.3%. Actual -0.3%.
7:00 German WPI. Exp. +0.4%. Actual -0.7%.
All Day: Eurogroup Meetings.
10:00 German ZEW Economic Sentiment. Exp. -11.4 points. Actual +6.9 points.
10:00 Euro-zone Economic Sentiment. Exp. +0.1 points. Actual+ 7.6 points.
13:30 US Trade Balance. Exp. -42.7B.
15:00 US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism. Exp. 51.6 points.
15:00 US Wholesale Inventories. Exp. +0.5%.

For more events and lines, see the Euro to dollar forecast

EUR/USD Sentiment
Will Fed implement QE4?: The markets are eagerly awaiting the next policy-setting meeting of the Federal Reserve, scheduled for Wednesday. While the politicians in Washington continue to squabble over the fiscal cliff, the Fed could spring into action with an additional monetary stimulus package. Operation Twist is nearing its end, and the Fed could decide to purchase $30-40 billion of Treasuries, in addition to the current program of $40 billion in purchases of MBS. There are plenty of weak areas in the US economy, including high unemployment and a sluggish manufacturing sector. These soft spots could serve as the catalyst for further Fed intervention.
Italian PM Monti announces resignation: There were dramatic events in Italy over the weekend, as Prime Minister Mario Monti announced that he will resign shortly, after losing the support of former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s party. The move means that Italians will head to the polls early next year. Monti has had success, cracking down on tax evasion and restoring Italy’s financial credibility, which has taken a beating as a result of the Euro-zone debt crisis. However, with the Italian economy mired in a recession, the latest political events puts further pressure on the shaky euro. Monti sought to reassure nervous markets, stating that he would remain in office until the 2013 budget is passed.
Bundesbank cuts German growth forecast: After the ECB issued a bleak assessment of Euro-zone growth late last week, the German Bundesbank followed suit. The powerful central bank revised downwards its forecast of growth in the Euro-zone’s largest economy. The Bundesbank said that it expects German GDP to expand just 0.7% this year and a negligible 0.4% in 2013. Back in June, the Bundesbank predicted growth of 1% in 2012 and 1.6% in 2013. On a positive note, the report stated that 2014 should see much stronger growth.
Euro Economic Sentiment data Improves: The markets received a dose of positive news as German and Euro-zone Economic Sentiment releases both looked sharp in November. The indices measure the level of optimism of institutional investors and analysts, and their opinions are highly valued by the markets. ZEW German Economic Sentiment climbed to 6.9 points, the first time the key index has pushed above the zero level since May. Euro-zone Economic Sentiment was also strong, coming in at 7.6 points, a seven-month high. Further solid data out of the euro-zone would provide a boost for the euro, which has looked shaky over the last few days.
Greece launches buy-back, waiting for aid: Greece has offered to purchase 10 billion euros of its national debt, as part of the new bailout agreement aimed at resolving the country’s severe debt crisis. Market sentiment was positive after the Greek government offered a premium on markets prices for Greek bonds. The EUR 10 billion buy-back could allow Greece to retire up to EUR 30 billion worth of debt. Greece is expecting the next installment of aid on December 13, and the buy-back is scheduled to be completed by December 17. German Chancellor Angela Merkel hinted that Berlin could consider a write-off of its Greek loans. Until now, Germany has strenuously objected to a write-off of Greek debt, but may have to show more flexibility if Greece is to regain its financial footing. However, Merkel isunlikely to agree to a debt haircut, in any shape or form, prior to German elections in 2013.
US lawmakers bicker as fiscal cliff negotiations continue: Republicans and Democrats continue to battle hard over the looming fiscal cliff crisis. The Democrat proposal calls for $1.6 trillion in additional taxes over the next 10 years, with higher taxes on those earning over $250,000. The Republicans have offered $800 billion in new tax revenue from spending cuts and overhauling the tax code. However, the Republicans are split on whether to agree to higher income tax rates, and the Democrats, led by President Obama, could take advantage of the disarray in the Republican camp. The markets are hoping that the politicians will find a compromise and avoid a crisis which could threaten the fragile US recovery. Both parties are likely to continue talking tough for a while yet, as the fiscal cliff clock keeps ticking.

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EURO TERUS PULIH Dalam Perdagangan AS

Euro terus pulih dalam perdagangan AS setelah beberapa komentar samar dari Monti PM Italia. Kiwi naik untuk hari keenam dan adalah pemain terbaik saat tetangga AUD adalah tertinggal tersebut. Kalender ini memiliki kepercayaan bisnis Australia dan pesanan mesin Jepang. Kedua Pra-EURUSD perdagangan tetap berlangsung.

Italia 10-tahun naik yield 30 basis poin lebih tinggi dan saham turun 2,2% sebagai perdebatan politik terus dan Berlusconi mengancam untuk kembali. Teknokrat PM Monti baru ini mengatakan ia akan mundur secepat Februari tapi hari ini mengatakan ia tidak mempertimbangkan berjalan saat ini. FT juga melaporkan ia sedang didekati oleh sentris dan berjalan mempertimbangkan untuk pemilu.

Euro turun menjadi 1,2886 pada pembukaan mingguan tapi itu cetak rendah hari. Euro naik terus lebih tinggi di perdagangan AS dan selesai hari di 1,2941.

Kabel juga aktif di perdagangan AS karena dikenakan biaya hingga 1,6097 sebelum melayang kembali ke 1,6078. Jika tidak, pasar bergerak relatif jinak.

Asia-Pasifik pedagang akan mencari fokus karena kalender cahaya. Up pertama, pada 0030 GMT, NAB melaporkan kepercayaan bisnis. Pembacaan sebelumnya adalah -1.

Pada 0600 GMT, fokus bergeser ke ekonomi Jepang berjuang, yang kemarin PDB data menunjukkan telah jatuh ke dalam resesi teknis. Perintah mesin alat awal cenderung terus kontrak setelah penurunan y / y 6,7% pada bulan Oktober.

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EUR / USD Mungkin Memperpanjang Rally Untuk 1.3100

EURUSD terbalik lebih rendah dari 1.3000 psikologis pada awal minggu dan kemudian terbalik sempurna lebih tinggi lagi dari dasar saluran yang menjadi pendukung.

Itu adalah skenario yang ideal untuk mendorong arus tinggi menjadi gelombang (v) yang mungkin masih naik menuju 1,3090 1,2945 sementara memegang.

EUR USD Elliott Wave Analysis – Click image to enlarge

Namun, perlu diingat bahwa reli lima gelombang dalam gelombang 3 bisa hampir selesai dan bahwa kita mungkin akan melacak tiga besar gelombang selanjutnya seminggu pull-back .

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EURUSD Markets MENUNGGU PEGUMUMAN RATE ECB

EUR / USD tetap stabil, karena pasar menunggu perkembangan saat ini keluar dari Brussels. ECB akan menetapkan Bid Rate Minimum dan juga mengadakan konferensi pers setelah announcment tingkat. ECB diperkirakan akan mempertahankan suku sebesar 0,75%. Pada hari Rabu, ada sejumlah campuran dari rilis utama AS. ADP Non-Farm Employment Perubahan jatuh di bawah perkiraan, posting angka terlemah dalam lebih dari satu tahun. Namun, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI naik sedikit dan lebih kuat dari perkiraan pasar. Dalam rilis ekonomi hari ini, Euro-zona PDB Revisi turun 0,1%, cocok dengan perkiraan pasar. Pesanan Pabrik Jerman melonjak 3,9%, kenaikan tertinggi sejak Desember lalu. Di AS, sorot hari ini adalah Klaim Pengangguran. Pasar mengharapkan perbaikan setelah rilis bulan November mengecewakan.


EUR / USD Teknis


Sesi Asia: Euro / dollar stabil, sebagai pasangan konsolidasi pada 1.3050. Pasangan ini lebih tinggi di sesi Eropa.
Saat ini kisaran: 1,3080-1,3140.
Selanjutnya tingkat di kedua arah:Further levels in both directions:

Di bawah: 1,3080, 1,3030, 1,30, 1,2960, 1,2880, 1,28, 1,2750, 1,2690, 1,2624, 1,2590, 1,25, 1,2440, 1,2390 dan 1.2250.

Atas: 1,3140,, 1,3170 1.3290 dan 1.34.

1,3080 berada di bawah tekanan kuat pada terbalik. 1,3140 lebih kuat.

1,3030 adalah baris berikutnya dukungan.

Euro / dollar stabil karena pasar pengumuman suku bunga ECB mata, kebijakan pertemuan-klik pada grafik untuk memperbesar.

EUR / USD Fundamental

10:00 Euro-zona Revisi PDB. Exp. -0.1%. Realisasi -0.1%.

11:00 Factory Orders Jerman. Exp. +0.9%. Realisasi 3,9%.

00:30 AS Challenger Job Cuts.

00:45 ECB Minimum Bid Rate.

13:30 ECB Konferensi Pers.

13:30 Pengangguran AS Klaim. Exp. 378K.

15:30 AS Penyimpanan Gas Alam. Exp-70B.

Untuk acara yang lebih dan garis, melihat Euro perkiraan dollar

EUR / USD Sentimen

• Warung reli Euro: Setelah tiga minggu yang kuat, euro telah mendatar. Meskipun data ekonomi sering lamban keluar dari zona euro, euro telah menikmati keberhasilan baru-baru terhadap dolar AS. Namun, setelah tiga minggu yang kuat, euro telah mendatar. Apakah reli atas, atau apakah kita melihat jeda sebelum keuntungan lebih lanjut? Perjanjian utang Yunani tampaknya memegang, dan jika bantuan mulai mengalir lagi ke Yunani, euro bisa mendorong lebih tinggi. Banyak tergantung pada krisis fiskal di AS - jika memburuk krisis, EUR / USD bisa menderita karena investor mencari keamanan dari greenback.
• Kesepakatan utang bergerak maju karena Yunani memulai pembelian kembali: Yunani telah menawarkan untuk membeli 10 miliar euro utang nasional, sebagai bagian dari perjanjian bailout baru yang bertujuan menyelesaikan krisis utang yang parah di negara itu. Sentimen pasar positif setelah pemerintah Yunani menawarkan premi pada harga pasar untuk obligasi Yunani. The 10 miliar EUR buy-back dapat memungkinkan Yunani untuk pensiun hingga EUR 30 miliar senilai utang. Yunani mengharapkan angsuran berikutnya dari bantuan pada tanggal 13 Desember, dan pembelian kembali dijadwalkan akan selesai pada tanggal 17 Desember. Dalam sebuah tanda bahwa deklarasi publik tidak terukir pada batu, Kanselir Jerman Angela Merkel mengisyaratkan bahwa Berlin bisa mempertimbangkan write-off pinjaman Yunani. Jerman telah keras keberatan seperti potong rambut, tapi mungkin harus menunjukkan lebih banyak fleksibilitas jika Yunani adalah untuk berdiri di atas kaki keuangan. Namun, Merkel tidak mungkin untuk menyetujui potongan rambut utang, dalam bentuk apapun atau bentuk, sebelum pemilu di Jerman pada tahun 2013.
• Spanyol posting data positif: Ini merupakan minggu yang baik untuk Spanyol, setidaknya sejauh rilis ekonomi yang bersangkutan. The treasury Spanyol mengangkat 4251000000 € dalam lelang obligasi pada hari Rabu. Hasil rata-rata pada obligasi 10-tahun turun menjadi 5,29%, turun dari 5,52% pada bulan November. Dengan angka-angka yang positif, pemerintah mungkin merasa dapat terus melupakan paket bantuan. Baru minggu lalu, Spanyol menyadap bailout untuk bank, sebagaimana yang diminta ESM untuk mentransfer sekitar € 40000000000 uang ke Spanyol perbankan otoritas frob. Dana ini akan menambah utang nasional Spanyol. Negara ini juga mencatat kenaikan Pelayanan PMI dan penurunan sehat dalam klaim pengangguran. Namun, Spanyol bergulat dengan resesi ekonomi, dan mungkin harus resor untuk paket penyelamatan sekitar tahun 2013.
• Parlemen Jerman memberikan mengangguk untuk kesepakatan Yunani: The kesepakatan utang Yunani melewati rintangan utama sebagai anggota parlemen Jerman sangat menyetujui kesepakatan itu, dengan suara 473-100. Perjanjian tersebut mencakup utang pembelian kembali skema dan memotong tingkat bunga pinjaman ke Yunani. Persetujuan oleh parlemen Jerman membersihkan jalan bagi Athena untuk akhirnya menerima € 44000000000 paket bailout disetujui oleh troika.
• Anggota parlemen AS spar atas tebing fiskal: Partai Republik dan Demokrat terus berjuang keras selama krisis tebing menjulang fiskal. Usulan Demokrat panggilan sebesar $ 1,6 triliun pada pajak tambahan selama 10 tahun ke depan, dengan pajak yang lebih tinggi pada mereka yang produktif lebih dari $ 250.000. Partai Republik telah menawarkan $ 800 miliar pendapatan pajak baru dari pemotongan belanja dan merombak kode pajak. Namun, Partai Republik dibagi pada apakah untuk menyetujui tarif pajak pendapatan yang lebih tinggi, dan Demokrat, yang dipimpin oleh Presiden Obama, bisa mengambil keuntungan dari kekacauan di kubu partai Republik. Pasar berharap bahwa politisi akan menemukan kompromi dan menghindari krisis yang bisa mengancam pemulihan AS yang rapuh. Kedua belah pihak kemungkinan akan terus berbicara dengan keras untuk sementara belum, karena jam tebing fiskal kutu keras setiap hari.

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EUR/USD Dec 4

EUR/USD remains firm, as the pair was trading close to six-week highs. The euro has looked sharp, rising about 150 points against the dollar in the past week. After the German parliament gave approval to the Greece debt agreement, Greece has now initiated a buy-back scheme from private investors, as part of the deal. In the US, the ISM Manufacturing PMI dipped below the 50 point line, dropping to its worst level in over three years. Back in Europe, Spain posted its second strong release this week, as Spanish Unemployment Change was well below the forecast.

EUR/USD Technical
Asian session: Euro/dollar was steady, as the pair consolidated at 1.3059. The pair has edged higher in the European session.
Current range: 1.3030 to 1.3080.

Further levels in both directions:


Below: 1.3030, 1.30, 1.2960, 1.2880, 1.28, 1.2750, 1.2690, 1.2624, 1.2590, 1.25, 1.2440, 1.2390 and 1.2250.
Above: 1.3080, 1.3140, 1.3170, 1.3290 and 1.34.
1.3030 has strengthened on the downside as the pair improves.
1.3080 is under pressure on the upside. 1.3140 is the next line of resistance.

Euro/dollar steady as Greece implements buy-back program– click on the graph to enlarge.

EUR/USD Fundamentals
8:00 Spanish Unemployment Change. Actual 74.3K. Exp. 90.0K.
All Day: ECOFIN Meetings.
10:00 Euro-zone PPI. Exp. 0.0%. Actual +0.1%.
15:45 US FOMC Member Daniel Tarullo Speaks.

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GBP / USD tidak berubah selama seminggu

GBP / USD tidak berubah selama seminggu, menutup tepat di atas garis 1,60, di 1,6011. Minggu mendatang cukup sibuk, dengan 13 kejadian. Berikut ini adalah prospek dari acara mendatang, dan analisis teknis diperbarui untuk GBP / USD.


Data Inggris umumnya positif pekan lalu, dengan Investasi Awal Bisnis dan Penjualan CB Realisasi mudah melebihi perkiraan. Meskipun data yang solid, GBP / USD menunjukkan gerakan sangat sedikit selama seminggu.

GBP / USD grafik dengan dukungan dan garis resistensi di atasnya. Klik untuk memperbesar:

• Manufaktur PMI: Senin, 9:30. Manufacturing PMI telah terjebak di bawah level 50 poin sejak Mei, menunjukkan kontraksi terus di sektor manufaktur Inggris. Perkiraan untuk pembacaan Desember berdiri pada 48. 1 poin.
• BRC Retail Penjualan Monitor: Selasa, 0:01. Penjualan Ritel BRC Memantau mendahului rilis pemerintah ritel penjualan sekitar 10 indikator konsumen hari.Ini kecewa bulan lalu, turun sebesar 0,1%.
• Halifax HPI: Selasa, 4-7. Indikator inflasi perumahan telah diposting empat penurunan berturut-turut, menunjukkan kelemahan dalam sektor perumahan Inggris. Pasar mengharapkan pembacaan Desember kuat, dengan perkiraan keuntungan 0,2% sederhana.
• Konstruksi PMI: Selasa, 9:30. Bulan lalu, ini rilis kunci mendorong di atas level 50 poin penting, menunjukkan ekspansi sedikit di sektor konstruksi Inggris. Hal ini diikuti dua pembacaan langsung di bawah 50. Pasar mengharapkan bahwa peluncuran juga akan sedikit di atas garis 50.
• BRC Toko Indeks Harga: Rabu, 0:01. Ini indeks inflasi ritel melonjak 1,5% bulan lalu, tertinggi enam bulan. Pasar akan berharap untuk lain membaca yang kuat dalam rilis Desember.
• Layanan PMI: Rabu, 9:30. Layanan PMI telah di atas tingkat 50 titik sepanjang 2012, menunjukkan pertumbuhan dalam industri jasa Inggris. Pasar mengharapkan bahwa membaca bulan ini akan sedikit di atas garis 50.
• Autumn Forecast Pernyataan: Rabu, 12:30. Laporan ini dipublikasikan secara tahunan. Laporan ini melihat anggaran pemerintah untuk tahun mendatang, termasuk pengeluaran diproyeksikan dan tingkat pendapatan.
• Neraca Perdagangan: Kamis, 9:30. Defisit Neraca Perdagangan datang di £ -8400000000, yang sedikit di bawah perkiraan. Pasar mengharapkan peluncuran untuk menunjukkan defisit yang sedikit lebih tinggi.
• Pembelian Aset Fasilitas: Kamis, 12:00. QE telah stabil di 375000000000 £ sejak Juli. Pasar mengharapkan bahwa BOE akan mempertahankan tingkat dalam rilis Desember.
• Bank Resmi Tingkat: Kamis, 12:00. Suku bunga acuan The BOE telah dipatok pada 0,50% sejak awal tahun 2009. Tidak ada perubahan yang diharapkan dalam rilis mendatang.
• Manufaktur Produksi: Jumat, 9:30. Ini lepaskan tombol telah menunjukkan fluktuasi beberapa, dengan hasil bahwa perkiraan pasar sering terbukti menjadi melenceng. Perkiraan untuk pembacaan Desember adalah penurunan sederhana dari 0,2%.
• Ekspektasi Inflasi Konsumen: Jumat, 9:30. Indikator ini dirilis setiap kuartal, dan digunakan oleh para analis untuk membantu memprediksi angka inflasi aktual. Pembacaan sebelumnya mencatat kenaikan sebesar 3,2%, terendah sejak 2009.
• NIESR PDB Perkiraan: Jumat, 15:00. Perkiraan PDB dirilis setiap bulan. Ini membantu analis memprediksi angka PDB resmi, yang dirilis setiap tiga bulan. Indikator membukukan keuntungan sebesar 0,5% dalam rilis November.

* Semua waktu adalah GMT

GBP / USD Technical Analysis

GBP / USD dibuka minggu di 1,6030, dan menyentuh level terendah dari 1,5962. Pasangan ini kemudian rebound, mencapai tinggi 1,6062, sebentar bergerak di atas resistance di 1,6060 (bahas minggu lalu). GBP / USD ditutup minggu di 1,6011.

Teknis baris dari atas ke bawah:

Kita mulai dengan resistance di jumlah putaran 1,66. Selanjutnya, ada resistensi di 1,6475. Baris ini telah dipegang teguh sejak Agustus 2011. Hal ini diikuti dengan resistance di 1,6343. Baris ini terakhir dilanggar ketika pound turun tajam pada bulan Agustus 2011. Kami selanjutnya menghadapi resistance di 1,6247. Di bawah ini, 1,6122 adalah memberikan perlawanan yang lemah. Baris ini telah dipegang teguh seluruh sejak awal November. Selanjutnya, ada resistensi di 1,6060. Baris ini sebentar dilanggar, namun terus memberikan perlawanan yang lemah. Carilah itu harus diuji lebih lanjut jika pound membaik.

GBP / USD terus menerima dukungan yang lemah pada 1,5992. Pasangan ini menerobos jalur ini karena kehilangan beberapa tanah, sebelum bangkit kembali di atas garis 1,60. Ini diikuti dengan 1,5930. Selanjutnya, ada support kuat di 1,5850. Ini diikuti dengan 1,5750, garis dukungan yang telah dipegang teguh sejak Agustus. Di bawah ini, ada dukungan di 1,5648.

Kami selanjutnya menghadapi perlawanan di angka bulat dari 1.5600. Hal ini diikuti dengan support di 1.5530. Baris ini terakhir dilanggar pada bulan Agustus, ketika pound mulai reli musim panas yang mengesankan. Baris dukungan akhir untuk saat ini adalah 1,5414, yang telah dipegang teguh sejak Juli.

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FOREX REVIEWS 3 - 7 Desember 2012

Dolar AS dan yen terus mundur selama seminggu lagi, karena optimisme terhadap resolusi tebing fiskal mengambil tengah panggung. Seminggu sangat sibuk menanti kita, dengan atas tingkat kunci indikator terkemuka AS ke semua-penting Non-Farm Payrolls, 5 keputusan tingkat dan banyak peristiwa penting lainnya pada minggu pertama bulan lalu. Berikut adalah penggerak pasar utama. Kencangkan sabuk pengaman Anda.

Perumahan AS tetap sorot ekonomi, AS Pending Home Sales Melompat 5,2%, bahkan sebagai penjualan rumah baru kecewa. Headline pertumbuhan PDB tampaknya kuat di Q3, tetapi ada tanda-tanda mengkhawatirkan 4 mengenai pertumbuhan di masa depan. Kita sekarang akan mendapatkan PMI segar dan data pekerjaan. Angka-angka ini juga penting untuk keputusan Fed berikutnya, seperti diskusi tebing fiskal. Setiap politisi memiliki kesempatan untuk memindahkan pasar. Di Eropa, kesepakatan non-lengkap terkesan untuk Yunani. Pembelian kembali obligasi sudah mulai mengungkap .. Ini adalah pilar penting dari perjanjian. Akankah kesepakatan bertahan dalam bentuknya saat ini?

• US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Senin, 15:00. US Manufacturing PMI indeks naik tipis tiba-tiba menjadi 51,7 pada Oktober, menyusul 51,5 pada bulan September, menunjukkan sektor manufaktur berada dalam tren pertumbuhan. Seorang tokoh serupa 51,5 diperkirakan sekarang.
• Tingkat Australian keputusan: Selasa, pukul 3.30. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) mempertahankan tingkat suku bunga resmi di 3,25%, menyusul penurunan suku bunga sebelumnya di bulan Oktober, bertentangan dengan prediksi lain penurunan suku bunga 0,25%. Gubernur Reserve Bank Glenn Stevens mengklaim efek dari penurunan suku bunga sebelumnya belum terealisasi sepenuhnya. Sebuah penurunan suku bunga dari 0,25% diharapkan sekarang, tetapi tidak memiliki konsensus penuh. Ketidakpastian ini akan batu AUD / USD pada hasil apapun.
• Tingkat Canadian keputusan: Selasa, 14:00. Bank of Canada terus target untuk tingkat overnight pada 1,0%. Perekonomian Kanada berada dalam tren pertumbuhan moderat seperti yang terlihat dalam laporan PDB baru-baru ini, dan diharapkan untuk mengambil dan kembali ke kapasitas penuh pada akhir tahun 2013. Perumahan aktivitas, serta ekspor, diharapkan untuk memperluas. Tidak ada perubahan diperkirakan sekarang.
• Australia GDP: Rabu, 00:30. Ekonomi Australia tumbuh pada kecepatan yang lebih lambat pada kuartal kedua, naik 0,6% menyusul ekspansi 1,4% pada kuartal pertama. Para ekonom mengharapkan tingkat pertumbuhan yang sedikit lebih tinggi dari 0,8%. Angka-angka yang lemah mencerminkan kelesuan di pasar perumahan dan depresiasi% Aussie.0.6. Tingkat ekspansi yang sama diperkirakan saat ini.
• US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: Rabu, 13:15. Perusahaan AS meningkat mempekerjakan pada bulan Oktober, menambahkan 158.000 pekerjaan, secara signifikan lebih baik dari yang diperkirakan dan jauh melampaui kenaikan 88.000 pada bulan sebelumnya. Angka-angka yang kuat adalah bukti lebih lanjut dari pickup dalam perekonomian. Kenaikan lain yang kuat dari 141.000 diharapkan. Perhatikan bahwa ADP sekarang menggunakan formula yang lebih baik untuk menghitung jumlah, sehingga lebih dapat diandalkan untuk NFP.
• US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Rabu, 15:00. Indeks non-manufaktur turun moderat 54,2 pada Oktober, dari 55,1 pada bulan September. Namun itu masih sinyal ekspansi. Enam dari 10 sub-komponen, berada di atas 50, namun Pesanan New menurun 57,7-54,8. Penurunan lebih lanjut untuk 53,8 diperkirakan saat ini. Komponen kerja penting untuk mengikuti, karena ukuran besar dari sektor jasa dalam perekonomian AS.
• Tingkat NZ keputusan: Rabu, 20:00. Cash Rate Resmi The RBNZ itu dipertahankan pada 2,5% untuk ke 22 kalinya. Keputusan suku bunga terakhir dilakukan oleh Graeme Wheeler Gubernur yang baru diangkat. Sentimen pelemahan ekonomi membaik, tetapi global dan kiwi yang kuat terus membebani perekonomian NZ. Tidak ada perubahan yang diharapkan.
• Australia data ketenagakerjaan: Kamis, 00:30. Ekonomi Australia menambahkan 10.700 pekerjaan di bulan Oktober, setelah penambahan 15.500 pada bulan September, jauh lebih baik dibandingkan dengan kenaikan 200 diharapkan oleh para analis. Tingkat pengangguran tetap stabil pada 5,4% hilang prediksi untuk tingkat pengangguran 5,5%. Pekerjaan penuh-waktu naik 18.700 sampai 8.130.100 pada bulan September, sedangkan bagian-waktu kerja turun 8.000 hingga 3.393.100. Ekonomi Australia diperkirakan akan menambah 200 pekerjaan sementara tingkat pengangguran diperkirakan akan mencapai 5,5%
• Inggris Tingkat keputusan: Kamis, 12:00. Tidak ada perubahan tarif diharapkan, namun perluasan program QE tidak dapat dikesampingkan setelah satu anggota sudah memilih untuk itu pada bulan November. Data ekonomi baru-baru ini belum terlalu menguntungkan dan tampaknya bahwa Q3 adalah pengecualian (Olimpiade) daripada norma. Pound tampaknya menikmati prospek moneter masa depan: kebijakan yang lebih hawkish bawah Carney. Untuk pertemuan bulan Desember, tidak ada perubahan dalam kebijakan kemungkinan akan mengakibatkan tidak ada perubahan besar di GBP / USD, sementara QE lebih bisa mengirim pound awalnya lebih rendah, tetapi tanpa efek jangka panjang. QE memiliki pengaruh yang jauh lebih signifikan di AS dari Inggris. Keputusan mungkin agak dibayangi oleh Pernyataan Autumn Kanselir ..
• Eurozone Tingkat keputusan: Kamis, 12:45. Ada banyak alasan untuk memotong tingkat di zona euro: kenaikan harga lambat, bahaya Jerman memasuki resesi dan krisis kredit potensial. Namun demikian, Draghi tampaknya tidak terburu-buru untuk bertindak dulu. Ada kesempatan yang lebih baik bahwa penurunan suku bunga 0,25% akan menunggu untuk Januari. Sebuah penurunan suku bunga saat ini akan menjadi kejutan kecil, menimbang pada euro. Cut ada akan mengatur fokus pada konferensi pers, di mana Draghi bisa membuat petunjuk tebal tentang langkah pada bulan Januari. Dalam hal apapun, tidak ada kata-kata positif yang diharapkan, dan sulit untuk melihat euro naik dalam menanggapi keputusan suku bunga.
• US Unemployment Claims: Kamis, 13:30. Indikator ini kembali normal setelah gangguan baru-baru ini ditimbulkan oleh superstorm Sandy. Klaim untuk tunjangan pengangguran turun sebesar 23.000 sampai 393.000, sesuai dengan prediksi. Sebuah penurunan ke 381K diharapkan sekarang - sesuatu yang sudah tidak akan diambil dengan sebutir garam oleh pasar.
• Data ketenagakerjaan Kanada: Jumat: 13:30. Meningkatkan Kanada baru-baru ini dalam penciptaan lapangan kerja hampir terhenti pada bulan Oktober, menambahkan 1.800 pekerjaan sedikit, menyusul lonjakan 52.100 ditinggikan pada bulan September. Sementara itu, tingkat pengangguran tetap di 7,4%. Jumlah pekerjaan yang diciptakan selama jumlah tahun lalu untuk 229.000, semua penuh-waktu. Pasar tenaga kerja diharapkan untuk mendapatkan 4.700 pekerjaan baru dengan tingkat pengangguran yang stabil sebesar 7,4%.
• US Non-Farm Employment Change: Jumat, 13:30. Non-pertanian payrolls terakhir sebelum pemilihan presiden AS keluar lebih baik dari yang diharapkan dengan penambahan 171.000 pekerjaan di bulan Oktober, menyusul kenaikan 148.000 di bulan September. Penurunan hanya terjadi dalam pekerjaan pemerintah, turun 13.000 pekerjaan untuk Oktober, tapi pekerjaan pemerintah yang lebih rendah dapat, dalam beberapa hal, masih dianggap positif. Ekonomi AS diperkirakan akan memperoleh 91.000 pekerjaan saat ini. Perhatikan bahwa data ini mungkin akan sedikit terdistorsi oleh "Sandy".
• Tingkat Pengangguran AS: Jumat, 13:30. Meskipun penambahan 171.000 pekerjaan yang mengesankan pada bulan Oktober, tingkat pengangguran meningkat menjadi 7,9% dari 7,8% pada bulan September, karena peningkatan jumlah pencari kerja. Sementara kenaikan tingkat pengangguran diperkirakan, peningkatan dalam pekerjaan mengalahkan ekspektasi, menunjukkan peningkatan yang berkelanjutan dalam perekonomian AS. Tidak ada perubahan yang diharapkan.
• AS UoM Sentimen Konsumen: Jumat, 14:55. Pembacaan awal terakhir dari Thomson Reuters / University of Michigan Indeks Sentimen Konsumen direvisi naik ke 84,9 dari 82,7, menyusul 82,6 pada bulan sebelumnya. Di tengah optimisme baru tentang prospek pekerjaan dan prospek perekonomian secara keseluruhan. Angka itu lebih tinggi dari yang diperkirakan oleh para analis 82,6. Sebuah penurunan menjadi 82,1 diperkirakan sekarang.

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